VC Masterclass: Inside Circle’s Blockbuster IPO: Spotting a Crypto Giant in the Making Before Its 845% IPO Pop

From $11/Share to Blockbuster IPO

In September 2018, while the cryptocurrency market was reeling from an 80% crash and media outlets were writing digital assets’ obituary, Alumni Ventures made a calculated $1 million investment in Circle at approximately $11 per share. Fast forward seven years. On June 5, 2025, Circle completed its initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange at $31 per share, where it then opened at $69 and traded as high as $298¹ — representing potential returns of 27x+ from our entry point. Since then it has slid back to $200, but this is still a sizeable gain for AV, though of course we need to wait until our lockup ends to monetize these shares.²

This wasn’t luck. This was the result of systematic analysis, contrarian timing, and a deep understanding of what separates genuine infrastructure companies from speculative plays. For investors seeking to understand how venture capital creates value through disciplined research and patient capital, the Circle journey offers a masterclass in identifying transformative opportunities.

Circle’s Key Differences

Founded in 2013, Circle Internet Group represents a rare breed in the cryptocurrency ecosystem: a company focused on building critical infrastructure rather than chasing speculative applications. Circle is the issuer of USD Coin (USDC), the world’s second-largest stablecoin with 27% market share, comprising $56+ billion in circulation.

Investment Thesis: Why We Invested During the Crypto Winter

Market Context in 2018

September 2018 represented one of the most challenging periods in cryptocurrency history. Bitcoin had fallen from nearly $20,000 to under $4,000. Initial coin offerings (ICOs) were collapsing daily. Regulatory uncertainty was at its peak. For most investors, digital assets had become untouchable.

This market dislocation created precisely the conditions where exceptional opportunities emerge for patient capital.

Contrarian Market Timing

The best investment opportunities often arise during periods of maximum market pessimism — a principle that guided our contrarian approach to Circle. While many investors were abandoning crypto, we recognized that fundamental infrastructure was being built at distressed valuations, creating a rare window for high-upside entry.

Our conviction was further reinforced by co-investing alongside institutional leaders such as Goldman Sachs and General Catalyst. Their participation provided additional due diligence and validation, helping us manage risk while capturing the upside of a market poised for recovery.

Experienced Pro at the Helm

Proven entrepreneurial leadership is a key driver of successful execution, especially in rapidly evolving industries. In Circle’s case, Jeremy Allaire’s experience in taking companies public and steering them through complex tech transitions provided the kind of steady, visionary leadership the crypto sector needed to mature. Additionally, Allaire’s history of guiding private ventures to public markets were much needed by a company and industry seeking broader acceptance and credibility.

Regulatory Head Start

In highly regulated industries, early and proactive compliance can create powerful competitive advantages. Circle distinguished itself by securing a BitLicense and constructively engaging with regulators from the outset, positioning the company to thrive as the industry matured. This regulatory leadership not only set a high bar for competitors but also established Circle as a trusted partner for institutions. We anticipated that as the market evolved, institutional adoption would hinge on working with regulated counterparties like Circle.

Circle’s Journey to the 2025 IPO

Circle’s growth from 2018 to its 2025 IPO is a testament to the impact of patient capital and long-term strategic vision. The company’s foundation was laid later in 2018 with the launch of USDC, a fully-backed, dollar-pegged stablecoin, through the Centre consortium — co-founded with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. From the outset, Circle prioritized regulatory compliance and institutional partnerships.

Between 2020 and 2022, Circle’s strategy paid off as USDC circulation exploded, driven by rapid institutional adoption of digital assets and surging demand for trusted, programmable dollars. The company secured strategic partnerships with major financial institutions, including Visa. Circle’s commitment to regulatory rigor and transparency enabled it to weather multiple “crypto winters,” maintaining its standing even as the broader market faced volatility and uncertainty.

The years 2023 and 2024 marked a period of institutional recognition and operational resilience for Circle. The company navigated the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, quickly restoring USDC’s dollar peg and reinforcing trust in its reserves management. By 2024, Circle had generated $1.68 billion in revenue and $156 million in net income, underscoring the strength of its business model. Circle also deepened relationships with major payment providers and financial institutions, positioning itself as a cornerstone of the digital financial ecosystem.

This evolution culminated in Circle’s NYSE IPO in June 2025, backed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup as underwriters. The IPO priced at $31 per share, above the expected range of $27-28. First-day trading saw shares reach as high as $103.75, with strong institutional demand. The first month saw share prices as high as $298.

Lessons for Investors

How We Identify Similar Opportunities

AV’s investment in Circle illustrates our approach to venture capital.

Finding the Next Circle

Circle’s successful IPO represents unprecedented credibility for the stablecoin market. Backing from major Wall Street firms signals that stablecoins are investable, scalable financial products. That validation opens opportunities across the digital asset ecosystem, including infrastructure providers, platforms prioritizing compliance, and enterprise blockchain solutions.

We continuously evaluate opportunities that exhibit similar characteristics:

AI Infrastructure

Quantum Computing Hardware

Climate Tech Solutions

Risk Factors and Future Outlook

While Circle’s IPO represents a significant milestone, investors should be aware of ongoing risks.

Despite these risks, Circle’s successful transition to public markets demonstrates that crypto companies can mature into traditional investment vehicles. With $1.7 billion in 2024 revenue and established partnerships with financial institutions, Circle has achieved the scale and operational maturity that many investors require.

Conclusion: The Power of Patient, Disciplined Capital

Our investment in Circle demonstrates how systematic analysis, contrarian timing, and patient capital can generate exceptional returns in venture investing. By focusing on infrastructure over applications, proven leadership over technical novelty, and regulatory compliance over “growth-at-any-cost,” we identified a company positioned to benefit from long-term tech adoption trends.

The digital transformation of finance is still in its early stages. Companies like Circle prove that this transformation can occur within regulated, institutional frameworks rather than requiring wholesale disruption of systems. For investors with the patience and expertise to identify similar opportunities, the next decade is rife with promise.

1. As of June 24, 2025
2. Alumni Ventures will first be able to sell shares in December 2025.

This communication is from Alumni Ventures, a for-profit venture capital company that is not affiliated with or endorsed by any school. It is not personalized advice, and AV only provides advice to its client funds. This communication is neither an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any security. Such offers are made only pursuant to the formal offering documents for the fund(s) concerned, and describe significant risks and other material information that should be carefully considered before investing. For additional information, please see here. Example portfolio companies are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not necessarily indicative of any AV fund or the outcomes experienced by any investor. Example portfolio companies shown are not available to future investors, except potentially in the case of follow-on investments. Venture capital investing involves substantial risk, including risk of loss of all capital invested. This communication includes forward-looking statements, generally consisting of any statement pertaining to any issue other than historical fact, including without limitation predictions, financial projections, the anticipated results of the execution of any plan or strategy, the expectation or belief of the speaker, or other events or circumstances to exist in the future. Forward-looking statements are not representations of actual fact, depend on certain assumptions that may not be realized, and are not guaranteed to occur. Any forward-looking statements included in this communication speak only as of the date of the communication. AV and its affiliates disclaim any obligation to update, amend, or alter such forward-looking statements, whether due to subsequent events, new information, or otherwise.

Example co-investors are provided for illustrative purposes only, do not represent all organizations with which Alumni Ventures co-invests, and are not necessarily indicative of future co-investors. The identity of a co-investor is not a guarantee of investment outcomes.