Webinar
The Preclinical Arbitrage: Why Early Biotech Is Mispriced. For Now.
Luca Giani, Senior Principal at Alumni Ventures — biotech founder, Blavatnik Fellow, and former M&A and strategy professional — led a contrarian look at why early-stage biotech is one of the most structurally mispriced corners of venture today, and why the window to capture that arbitrage may be narrower than most investors realize.
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In this session, Luca Giani, Senior Principal at Alumni Ventures, will unpack the dislocation forming inside early-stage biotech: $300B in pharma revenues facing patent expiration by 2030, more than 70% of new drug revenues now externally sourced, and a venture market where early-stage’s share of biopharma VC has fallen from 43.5% to 32.1% as capital migrates upstream into mega-rounds. Drawing on his background as the founder of a neuroscience therapeutics company and his work across Harvard’s life-sciences fellowship programs, Luca will explain why the headline numbers obscure more than they reveal — and why a small set of mispriced preclinical assets are quietly being built today into the future franchises pharma will eventually need to acquire.
The session is built for accredited investors evaluating biotech as a venture allocation, current Alumni Ventures investors looking to sharpen their view of the sector, or anyone curious why a contrarian biotech thesis matters right now. Luca will share how Alumni Ventures is investing alongside leading institutional co-investors — including ARCH Venture Partners, Norwest, GreatPoint Ventures, Madrona, Regeneron Ventures, and Prime Movers Lab — across companies like Excision (gene editing), Iambic (AI drug discovery), and Dimension Bio (precision gene therapy). Register to walk away with a clear, framework-driven view of where the arbitrage actually lives — and why the window may not stay open long once landmark deals reprice the cohort.
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Why Attend?
- HomeDiscover why early-stage biotech is structurally mispriced today — and how a $300B pharma patent cliff combined with capital migrating upstream is creating a narrow arbitrage window
- HomeUnderstand how Alumni Ventures evaluates early biotech assets and invests alongside leading institutional co-investors across gene editing, AI drug discovery, and precision gene therapy
- HomeHear directly from a biotech founder and Senior Principal at AV on what the headline numbers miss — and how disciplined selection separates arbitrage from loss
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Alumni Ventures is America’s largest venture capital firm for individual investors.
About your presenter
Senior Principal
Luca Giani is a Senior Principal, investor, and serial entrepreneur with a track record across venture creation, M&A, and translational science. He specializes in bridging science, strategy, capital, and talent to help build mission-driven ventures.
Luca was the Founder & CEO of Ilios Therapeutics, a neuroscience company developing a novel chemistry platform to address ALS, Parkinson’s, and Alzheimer’s disease. Under his leadership, Ilios built a diversified preclinical pipeline, advanced lead optimization, filed foundational IP, and positioned the company for strategic partnerships.
Luca is a Termeer Fellow, part of a global network of emerging biotech CEOs mentored by industry leaders. He previously served as a Blavatnik Fellow in Life Science Entrepreneurship at Harvard Business School, and as a Technology and Public Purpose Fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center, appointed by and working with former U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, where he authored policy work on accelerating treatments for neurodegenerative diseases under the mentorship of Dr. Robert Langer.
Earlier in his career, Luca co-founded Innbiotec Pharma; led international investments in MedTech and digital health at 5Lion Ventures; and co-founded and commercialized Somnifix, a patented sleep apnea and snoring therapy. He began his career in M&A at Credit Suisse, followed by strategy consulting at Bain & Company in London, advising clients on market expansion, transformation, and operational optimization.
Luca holds a Master with Distinction from Harvard, has completed programs at Harvard Medical School, Harvard Business School, and MIT Sloan, and earned his B.S. magna cum laude from Georgetown University.